Subjective Probability
نویسنده
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Probability, Frequency, and Resonable Expectation
This paper is a Persian translation of R. T. Cox (1946) famous work concerning subjective probability. It establishes an axiomatic foundation for subjective probability, akin to Kolmogorov's work.
متن کاملCountable Additivity and Subjective Probability
While there are several arguments on either side, it is far from clear as to whether or not countable additivity is an acceptable axiom of subjective probability. I focus here on de Finetti’s central argument against countable additivity and provide a new Dutch book proof of the principle, to argue that if we accept the Dutch book foundations of subjective probability, countable additivity is a...
متن کاملTaking the Sting out of Subjective Probability
We analyze the subjective (Bayesian) view of probability by giving an analogue of`truth conditions' for subjective probabilities: we deene what has to be the case in a domain in order for the subjective assessment the probability of event E is p to be accurate in the domain. Our analysis is radically diierent from existing approaches, in that we assume from the beginning that subjective probabi...
متن کاملSubjective Probabilities in Household Surveys.
Subjective probabilities are now collected on a number of large household surveys with the objective of providing data to better understand inter-temporal decision making. Comparison of subjective probabilities with actual outcomes shows that the probabilities have considerable predictive power in situations where individuals have considerable private information such as survival and retirement...
متن کامل‘Expected utility / subjective probability’ analysis without the sure-thing principle or probabilistic sophistication
The basic analytical concepts, tools and results of the classical expected utility/subjective probability model of risk preferences and beliefs under subjective uncertainty can be extended to general “event-smooth” preferences over subjective acts that do not necessarily satisfy either of the key behavioral assumptions of the classical model, namely the Sure-Thing Principle or the Hypothesis of...
متن کاملA Computational Theory of Subjective Probability
In this article we demonstrate how algorithmic probability theory is applied to situations that involve uncertainty. When people are unsure of their model of reality, then the outcome they observe will cause them to update their beliefs. We argue that classical probability cannot be applied in such cases, and that subjective probability must instead be used. In Experiment 1 we show that, when j...
متن کامل